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It is expected that P460ML2 steel Russian pig iron exports will continue to face challenges in 2025, mainly due to EU sanctions against Russia and restrictions related to the Ukraine war, which will result in a complete ban on Russian pig iron entering the EU market from 2026 onwards.
According to the latest data, European P460ML2 steel importers have fully utilized Russia's pig iron quota by 2024, and as of September 2024, the import volume has reached 1.14 million tons.
The quota period for 2025 will begin on January 1st, and the import quota will decrease by nearly 39% compared to 2024, allowing only 700000 tons of pig iron to be imported. It is reported that about 200000 to 300000 tons of Russian pig iron have arrived at European ports, mainly concentrated in Italy, and customs clearance is expected to begin from January 1st.
There are different opinions in the market regarding the time to exhaust the quota. Some Russian steel P460ML2 steel mills have stated that they expect the quota to be exhausted by the end of the first quarter, while most market participants believe that the quota will gradually be used according to buyer demand, and the new quota size may have a significant impact on pig iron prices in the Black Sea region.