CBAM drives upward trend in coil prices, but buyer sentiment turns cautious

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According to foreign media reports, market participants warn that following ArcelorMittal’s recent announcement of a price hike, the EU market may not yet be ready to absorb a substantial increase in coil prices.

Although this price increase was likely driven by the official entry into force of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at the beginning of the year, price growth in the months leading up to this point had been characterized by a slow, gradual trajectory.

A Dutch market participant observed: "Steelmakers are attempting to push prices up more rapidly; however, this could face resistance from processors, as these companies are currently unable to pass on the increased costs to their downstream customers."

He noted that recent import offers for hot-rolled coil from Turkey and the Middle East have reached a high of approximately €540 per tonne (CFR Antwerp). 50A290 Non oriented magnetic steel, Once CBAM costs are factored in—the specific amount depending on the individual scenario—this price would sit only slightly below current European spot market levels. He added that prior to last week, ex-works prices for hot-rolled coil in Europe hovered around €630–€650 per tonne, whereas ArcelorMittal’s latest offer has raised the price of hot-rolled coil to €700 per tonne.

In comparison, the price increases for cold-rolled coils and hot-dip galvanized coils appear significantly more aggressive. Currently, quoted prices for cold-rolled coils have risen to €830 per tonne, while hot-dip galvanized coils stand at €820 per tonne. 50A290 Non oriented magnetic steel, Previously, the highest quotes—observed in the Netherlands—were €750 per tonne for cold-rolled coils and €760 per tonne for hot-dip galvanized coils.

Notably, the quoted price for cold-rolled coils has now surpassed that of hot-dip galvanized coils. A German market participant observed that domestic European steelmakers have recently shown diminished interest in producing cold-rolled coils, preferring instead to focus on hot-rolled and hot-dip galvanized coils; this shift has led to tightening supply of cold-rolled coils in the market.

The Dutch source also noted that the EU is currently advancing various trade measures—such as anti-dumping investigations specifically targeting cold-rolled coils—leading to a widespread market expectation that this product category will soon face higher tariffs. 50A290 Non oriented magnetic steel, He suggested that this regulatory context serves as one of the justifications for steelmakers raising cold-rolled coil prices.

A German buyer expressed the view that ArcelorMittal’s latest price hike was "somewhat excessive," arguing that the new quotes—particularly for cold-rolled and hot-dip galvanized coils—"are completely out of step with current market conditions and may be applicable only to certain specialized, high-end products."

He voiced concern that these new price demands could deter buyers, prompting them to adopt a more cautious stance. "Many customers may decide to hold off on placing orders; should the market grind to a halt, it would be to everyone's detriment," he added.

  • Source: Abstract
  • Editor: Shirley

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