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According to data from the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF), Japan's crude steel production in 2025 is projected to decline by 4% year-on-year to 80.67 million tons—falling to its lowest level since 1969 and dropping even below the 83.18 million tons recorded during the pandemic-hit year of 2020.
Plagued by sluggish domestic demand and the impact of low-priced imported steel, the Japanese steel industry continues to face significant pressure. 50A270 Non oriented magnetic steel, In the construction sector, labor shortages have led to project delays; coupled with a persistent decline in new car sales, demand for steel in both the construction and automotive sectors has weakened simultaneously. Among external shocks, the sustained high volume of steel exports from China has emerged as a critical factor. From January to September 2025, China's steel export volume rose by 9.2% year-on-year to 87.96 million tons—marking a historical high for this period—while Japan's steel imports from China increased by 1.5% year-on-year during the same period, further squeezing the domestic market.
Although China's crude steel production has retreated on a year-on-year basis, the downturn in the real estate sector and a broader economic slowdown have caused domestic demand to contract. This widening gap between supply and demand has accelerated the flow of low-priced steel into the international market. 50A270 Non oriented magnetic steel, Data indicates that from January to September 2025, China's crude steel production declined by 2.9% year-on-year to 746 million tons, while apparent crude steel consumption fell by 5.7% year-on-year to 649 million tons.
Amidst rising global trade protectionism, Japan's steel exports are facing significant pressure. Constrained by anti-dumping measures in markets such as South Korea and the European Union, Japan's steel export volume is projected to decline by 4.2% year-on-year in 2025, falling to 30.08 million tons—marking the second consecutive year of decline. Data from the World Steel Association indicates that for the period of January through November 2025, U.S. crude steel production has surpassed that of Japan; consequently, Japan's full-year production is expected to drop to fourth place globally, ranking behind China, India, and the United States.
In the face of these long-term pressures, Japanese steel companies are continuing to advance capacity consolidation and overseas expansion. Since 2020, Nippon Steel has reduced its number of blast furnaces from 15 to 10; meanwhile, JFE Holdings idled one blast furnace in 2023 and plans to shut down another in the 2027 fiscal year. On the international front, Nippon Steel is set to finalize its acquisition of U.S. Steel in 2025 and is constructing a new steel plant in India, aiming to achieve an annual crude steel production capacity of 100 million tons through overseas expansion. 50A270 Non oriented magnetic steel, JFE Holdings is similarly increasing its investment in the Indian market to strengthen its regional footprint of integrated steelworks.
Nippon Steel's management has stated that the Japanese steel industry—which relies heavily on exports—will continue to face a challenging operating environment in 2026; as such, achieving economies of scale and expanding into overseas markets have become the core strategies for maintaining technological leadership and competitiveness.