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Market participants in Brazil increasingly anticipate a rise in steel prices for May. A survey on market sentiment shows that the expected price index for finished steel in Brazil rose by 8.36 points from April to 65.62 points—the highest level since August 2024. HCT980X+Z Hot dip galvanized steel , The index ranges from 0 to 100, with 50 serving as the threshold between expansion and contraction; a reading above 50 indicates an expectation of rising prices compared to the previous month, while a reading below 50 suggests an expectation of a decline.
Regarding inventories, the expected steel inventory index for May rose to 54.16 points from 49.57 points in April, signaling heightened concern about inventory pressure. Among respondents, 37% projected an inventory cycle exceeding 50 days, 31% estimated around 30 days, 19% anticipated less than 20 days, and 13% expected around 40 days, reflecting a divergence in inventory levels. HCT980X+Z Hot dip galvanized steel , In contrast, expectations for finished steel production remained largely stable; the index for May stood at 53.12 points—slightly lower than the 53.42 points recorded the previous month—indicating no clear signs of expansion on the production side for the time being.
Regarding raw materials, the expected price change index for steelmaking raw materials in May stood at 59.37 points—slightly higher than April’s 58.97 points—indicating a continued upward trend. While the scrap market has remained generally stable recently, some recyclers are attempting to push for price increases due to the depreciation of the US dollar. However, downstream demand remains under pressure; purchasing is largely tied to immediate needs, and the pace of restocking remains cautious.
In terms of pricing, as of May 11, domestic rebar prices in Brazil held steady at 3,520 BRL/tonne (EXW), with a mainstream range of 3,440–3,600 BRL/tonne (EXW). HCT980X+Z Hot dip galvanized steel , Hot-rolled coil prices also remained stable at 4,025 BRL/tonne (EXW), with a mainstream range of 3,950–4,100 BRL/tonne (EXW). These prices exclude taxes and freight costs.
Overall, expectations for rising steel prices in the Brazilian market have strengthened significantly for May. However, rising inventory pressure and continued caution on the demand side mean that any near-term improvement in actual transaction volumes requires further observation.
