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In June 2025, the Purchasing LR/FH46 steel Managers' Index (PMI) for Japan's manufacturing industry rebounded to 50.1, ending the previous 11 month contraction and indicating a slight expansion in manufacturing activity, with the previous value being 49.4. However, despite the rebound in output, the steel industry still faces significant pressure.
Manufacturing output increased for the first time in 10 months in June, but overall demand remained weak, with orders and sales continuing to decline. Industry feedback suggests that the uncertainty of US tariff policies is suppressing orders, and there are also signs of a decline in demand from major markets such as Asia, LR/FH46 steel Europe, and the United States.
Analysts point out that in order to promote the sustained recovery of the manufacturing industry, we still need to wait for a stable rebound in customer demand, and currently, due to the uncertain prospects of US tariffs, this process still faces a lot of uncertainty.
Entering July, the Japanese manufacturing industry may encounter more obstacles. The United States has extended a 50% tariff to various types of steel and aluminum derivatives, including household appliances, starting from June 23rd. The tariff amount is determined based on the proportion of steel and aluminum contained in the products. In addition, the equivalent tariff measures of the United States will expire on July 9th, and the market expects the policy to further tighten.
Under the dual impact of weak external demand and sluggish domestic demand, local Japanese steel mills such as Tokyo Steel have maintained their factory prices unchanged for three consecutive months, and pointed out that overseas markets are highly concerned about the economic slowdown risks caused by US LR/FH46 steel trade policies, and overall market sentiment tends to be cautious.
