Tel :
Tel :
Tadashi Imai, chairman of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation and president of Nippon Steel Corporation, stated in Tokyo on December 25th that China's planned steel export licensing system will be unlikely to effectively curb steel exports or provide substantial support for price recovery.
As the world's largest steel producer, China plans to implement a licensing system for steel exports starting in 2026 to regulate export behavior. 35H094 Grain oriented electrical steel, In recent years, China's steel exports have maintained high growth, triggering increased trade protectionism in many countries.
At a press conference, Imai stated that, as Japan understands it, the main purpose of the measure is to restrict the export of substandard steel products; it is more of a quality management tool than a solution to the core problems currently facing the steel market. "We do not believe that this policy will effectively curb export volume or have a substantial impact on market prices."
He pointed out that the surge in Chinese steel exports has become a widespread concern in the international market. 35H094 Grain oriented electrical steel, Japan believes that government subsidies received by Chinese steel companies have stimulated overproduction and low-price exports, exacerbating the global steel market's supply-demand imbalance.
In the domestic market, the Japan Steel Federation projects that steel demand from the construction and manufacturing sectors will remain largely flat in fiscal year 2026 (starting April 2026), and Japan's crude steel production is expected to be similar to that of the current fiscal year.
Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry forecast this week that Japan's crude steel production will decline by 3.2% year-on-year to 80.33 million tons in the current fiscal year, the lowest level since fiscal year 1968.
Regarding the impact of US tariff policies, including the 50% tariff on steel and the 15% tariff on Japanese goods, Tadashi Imai stated that this will reduce Nippon Steel's profits by approximately 20 billion yen (about US$130 million) this fiscal year, 35H094 Grain oriented electrical steel, and steel exports to the US are expected to halve compared to the previous year.
However, he also pointed out that if the indirect effects, including the 15% tariff on automobiles, are taken into account, the overall impact is lower than previously expected by the market.
