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Since July, the sentiment in the US BV/FH36 steel and raw material market has further stabilized compared to June. Although the adjustment of tariff policies previously triggered short-term inventory replenishment, the market generally expects limited improvement in downstream demand, and the uncertainty brought by trade policies is still suppressing spot trading activity.
About 40% of the surveyed domestic steel mills, traders, and end-users in the United States believe that steel prices will rise slightly in July compared to the previous month, with an increase of no more than 5%, which is a decrease from the proportion holding this view in June; An equal proportion of respondents expect prices to remain stable, while the proportion of those who believe prices may fall has slightly increased, indicating a growing divergence in market views on short-term trends.
At present, the price of hot-rolled BV/FH36 steel coils in the United States remains relatively stable. Although some steel mills have announced high listing prices, the market feedback on tradable prices is mostly concentrated in the lower range, especially in the central and western regions where the trading level of some steel mills is significantly lower than the guidance quotation, indicating a strong willingness of buyers to lower prices.
From a demand perspective, most market participants expect terminal consumption to remain at the level of June in July. Some companies mentioned that demand in the automotive and OEM industries still has support, but the overall performance of the construction sector is weak. A steel mill insider pointed out that although there has been a slight improvement in recent orders, the pace of spot trading is still slow.
In terms of inventory, about 70% of the respondents believe that the inventory level in July will remain basically unchanged, indicating that the market is still cautious about stocking pace in the context of uncertainty. Some service centers have also stated that the inventory of terminals and intermediate channels is currently at a low level, but considering that demand has not shown substantial improvement, the willingness to replenish inventory is still conservative.
In terms of production, nearly 70% of respondents expect production to remain stable in July, a significant increase from the flat view in June. The proportion of those who believe that production will increase has decreased, reflecting that steel mills are becoming more cautious about their production plans in the context of uncertain demand expectations.
In terms of raw material prices, more than half of market participants expect prices to remain stable in July, while some expect there to be some room for further increase, mainly influenced by the cost support of the international market. Some companies have also mentioned that if there is no significant improvement in demand, there will be downward pressure on raw material prices in the future.
Overall, the US BV/FH36 steel market showed a more rational performance in July after a brief fluctuation in June. Most enterprises are still in a cautious and wait-and-see state, with spot purchases mainly based on contract volume. The focus of price operation has temporarily stabilized, but the subsequent trend still needs to closely monitor policy dynamics and actual consumption recovery.
