Implementation of CBAM Carbon Costs Accelerates Green Steel Deployment; Market Characterized by Supply-Driven Dynamics

On April 7, the European Commission announced the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) certificate price for the first quarter of 2026 (January–March) at €75.36 per tonne. JIS G 3313 SEFC370 steel strip, Based on an emission factor of two tonnes of CO2 per tonne of steel, this implies an additional carbon cost of approximately €150 per tonne for steel products.

As CBAM makes the carbon costs associated with steel increasingly explicit, decarbonization has become a core industry issue, prompting global steelmakers to accelerate the commercialization of low-carbon (green) steel. In Japan, Kobe Steel pioneered the launch of "Kobenable Steel" in 2022, followed by Nippon Steel’s "NSCarbolex Neutral" and JFE Steel’s "JGreeX"; all three major blast-furnace steelmakers are advancing their branding strategies using the mass-balance approach. JIS G 3313 SEFC370 steel strip, Additionally, Tokyo Steel and Yamato Steel are also launching their own proprietary brands.

In Europe, companies such as ArcelorMittal and voestalpine—alongside Asian counterparts like Baosteel, POSCO, and Hyundai Steel—are accelerating the launch of green steel brands and intensifying marketing efforts targeting downstream sectors like automotive and electronics. JIS G 3313 SEFC370 steel strip, Meanwhile, steelmakers in Europe and the United States are steadily expanding their supply of low-carbon steel by increasing scrap usage and integrating renewable energy and hydrogen power.

However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global low-emission steel production capacity will reach approximately 10 million tonnes by 2030, while demand is expected to remain around 5 million tonnes; consequently, supply will significantly outstrip demand in the near term, resulting in a supply-driven market.

Currently, there is considerable variation across industries and regions regarding the willingness to accept a premium of roughly $30 to $50 per tonne, and the adoption of cost-sharing mechanisms faces bottlenecks. Although relevant policy frameworks continue to advance, it will take time for actual demand to fully materialize.