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According to data released by the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF) on July 23rd, Japan's crude steel production for the first six months of 2025 was 40.55 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5%.KR R/A47 steel, June production alone was 6.72 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, marking the third consecutive month of year-on-year decline, dragging down total production in the second quarter by 5.1% year-on-year to 20.16 million tons.
From a process perspective, converter production in the first half of the year was 29.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, while electric arc furnace production was 10.72 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%.
For hot-rolled steel, total production in the first half of the year was 36.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, of which hot-rolled wide strip production was 17.74 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%.
The third-quarter forecast released by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on July 8th indicated that the sluggish trend is likely to continue.KR R/A47 steel Crude steel production for July-September is projected to be 20.11 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. Domestic steel demand for the same period is expected to be 18.38 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%.
METI noted that both the construction and manufacturing sectors faced challenges in the third quarter. The construction sector continued to be impacted by labor shortages and rising raw material costs. While the automotive industry has resumed production capacity, demand growth has been limited. The overall weak performance of manufacturing outside the automotive sector is expected to be a significant factor suppressing demand.
Specifically, steel demand in the construction sector is projected to be 3.94 million tons in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%; demand in the manufacturing sector is expected to be 5.61 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. While demand in the automotive sector has rebounded slightly, it still lacks a significant overall boost. External demand for the industrial machinery industry remains weak, with only a slight increase expected.
Regarding exports, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry projects third-quarter steel exports at 6.09 million tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 11.5%.KR R/A47 steel This is primarily due to the decline in Japanese automakers' market share in China, the economic slowdown in Southeast Asia and Europe, and the impact of overseas trade restrictions.
The department also emphasized the need to continue monitoring the impact of the imbalance in supply and demand in China's steel market on surrounding markets, as well as the changing trends in U.S. tariff policies. On July 22, U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. and Japan were close to reaching a "major agreement" and that the U.S. would lower tariffs on Japanese steel imports to 15%.
