Japan’s crude steel production in April decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, and the outlook for the second quarter remains under pressure

According to data released by the ABS DQ56 steel Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF) on May 22, Japan's crude steel production in April 2025 was 6.61 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%. Despite recording a slight year-on-year growth of 0.2% in March, the Japanese steel industry had been experiencing a continuous decline in production for 12 months, with another decline in April.

From a process perspective, the output of BOF converter was 4.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, marking the first decline in nearly two months; The electric furnace (EAF) production was 1.78 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%, recording a year-on-year decrease for the ninth consecutive month.

On the downstream side, the production of hot-rolled steel in April was 5.91 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. Among them, the production of hot-rolled wide strip steel was 2.91 million tons, accounting for about 49.2%, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and the performance was relatively stable.

In total, Japan's crude steel production for the first four months of 2025 was 27 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%; The total output of hot-rolled ABS DQ56 steel was 24.07 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%; The production of hot-rolled wide strip steel was 11.75 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%.

The statistical data from JISF basically confirms the pessimistic expectations of the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) for the second quarter. The department predicts that the crude steel production in the second quarter of 2025 is expected to be 20.2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, mainly due to the continued weak demand for steel at home and abroad.

In terms of steel mills, Nippon Steel ABS DQ56 steel expressed a cautious attitude towards the fiscal year ending at the end of March 2026, mainly affected by weak demand and trade barriers. JFE Steel stated in its forecast released on May 8th that its crude steel production for the 2025-26 fiscal year (non consolidated caliber) will decrease to approximately 21 million tons, a decrease of approximately 1 million tons from the previous fiscal year.