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According to preliminary data from BigMint, India's total steel AB/FQ43 steel exports for the 2024-25 fiscal year were 6.25 million tons, a sharp decrease of nearly 30% year-on-year, and a decrease of over 2.5 million tons compared to the previous fiscal year. Among them, the export of finished sheet metal experienced the most significant decline, with a decrease of over 32%, falling below 5 million tons; The export of semi-finished and finished long products is also showing a downward trend.
One of the core reasons for the decline in AB/FQ43 steel exports is the intensification of international price competition. In 2024, in the Vietnamese market, the price of hot coils in India is about $60/ton higher than in China under CFR conditions. At the end of fiscal year 2025, China's offer to the Middle East is also more than $30/ton lower than India's. India does not have a significant price advantage over its traditional export market.
In addition, the weakening of demand in multiple key markets has intensified export pressure. The UAE's willingness to import has weakened due to the impact of low-priced resources and import tariffs on long materials; Türkiye's own production increased and its purchase from India decreased; Nepal's steel production capacity expansion has led to a decline in India's semi-finished product exports; During the Ramadan period in the Middle East market, project shutdowns resulted in temporary weak demand.
Trade barriers also constrain India's export performance. The EU launched an anti-dumping investigation into Indian hot rolls in August 2024, resulting in India only using 3% of its export quota from October to December 2024. At the beginning of 2025, India's exports plummeted by 40% year-on-year. Vietnam and Malaysia have successively launched or imposed anti-dumping measures, further reducing export space.
Although AB/FQ43 steel trade protectionism and high tariff policies may continue to affect the export environment, some positive signals have also emerged. Indian steel has been temporarily excluded from Vietnam's anti-dumping duty list, which may bring a turning point for exports. If the supply rhythm of major exporting countries around the world adjusts, India may be able to seize some market share, and its steel export prospects are expected to improve.
