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According to preliminary data from BigMint, India's total AB/EQ43 steel steel imports (including stainless steel) for the 2024-25 fiscal year reached 10.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9%, the highest level in nine years. During the same period, the export volume decreased significantly to 6.25 million tons, a decrease of nearly 30% year-on-year. The import and export deficit has widened to 4.38 million tons, and India has become a net importer of steel for the second consecutive year.
In the imported structure, finished sheet metal accounted for as much as 89%, reaching 9.47 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14%; The import of semi-finished steel will decrease by 25% to 820000 tons; The import of finished long products remained stable at 340000 tons.
Among the main source countries, China AB/EQ43 steel and South Korea are tied for first place, exporting 2.83 million tons each to India, accounting for 27% of the total imports; Among them, China's export volume increased by 11% year-on-year, while South Korea's increased by 3%. Japan's exports increased significantly by 58% to 1.85 million tons. Vietnam and Indonesia's export volumes decreased by 5% (860000 tons) and 11% (710000 tons) respectively.
The growth of imports is mainly affected by the low price shock from China and free trade agreement (FTA) countries. For most of 2024, the price of locally produced hot-rolled coils (HRC) in India will be higher than that of imported materials, and the cost advantage of onshore transportation will encourage companies to choose to import more. Japan also utilizes its FTA advantage with India for zero tariff exports. In addition, some Chinese steel mills concentrated on shipping before the expiration of BIS licenses, while Vietnamese steel mills saw a rebound in exports after license updates.
It is worth noting that the import of AB/EQ43 steel electrical steel increased by 40% year-on-year to 1.97 million tons. According to data from the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), an Indian think tank, the supply gap of cold-rolled oriented silicon steel (CRGO) in the Indian power industry is 30%, and local production can only meet 10% -12% of demand. This category is not within the scope of safeguard tariffs.
In December 2024, India launched an investigation into steel safeguard measures and imposed a temporary safeguard tariff of 12% on most sheet metal from April 2025. Due to policy uncertainty, buyers tended to be cautious in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year, resulting in a decline in hot-rolled coil imports.
Looking ahead, under the influence of the new tariff policy, imports will be under pressure in the early 2025-26 fiscal year, but the uncertainty of geopolitics and global trade situation will still add variables to the market.
